I don't want to see dead people

Hey folks... I'm willing to bet that there were lots more non-famous people who died today. I bet there were also many non-governors who got caught cheating on their spouses too. I was as shocked as anyone to hear about Michael Jackson, but the shock has now been overwhelmed by disgust at how obsessed we are with the private lives of the famous and powerful. So please everyone, take a step back and recognize that these people are human beings just like the rest of us.

Cultivating Your Outernet

I've been spending a great deal of time on the Internet in the last month or so between the end of the spring semester and the start of summer nerd camp, which shouldn't surprise anyone who has ever had a lot of time on their hands, little to do, and a cable/DSL/T1/FIOS/neural implant connection. But today I was thinking about why people spend so much time on the Internet in the first place -- the alternative being going outside, visiting real places, and talking to real people. Could it be that we find the Internet more interesting than real people, places, and things? How could that be, since the former is only an indirect approximation of the latter? Are we just lazy? Do we have allergies? Perhaps, but I think that ultimately the problem is one of marketing. The Internet is an extremely well marketed tool, and a big part of that is that is has a cool name: The Internet. Clearly the world outside of the Internet needs a cool name too in order to compete for our attention. I have decided to call it "The Outernet."

As a computer scientist, I mustn't fail to distinguish here between the Internet and the World Wide Web: the Internet is the networked hardware (servers, routers, etc.) that the software that makes up the World Wide Web (twitter, facebook, youtube, blogs, mittromneyisatool.com, etc.) runs on. Similarly, the Outernet is the hardware (trees, animals, pavement, oceans, chemical plants) that the software of the World Wide World (us) runs on. Sometimes quite literally (though sadly not for me these days as my knees will not abide anything faster than a brisk walking pace).

As an amateur philosopher, I should also point out that our experience both the Internet and the Outernet can be very subjective. Though they share the same objective qualities, my Internet is not the same as your Internet. So we each have our very own Internet and Outernet which neatly intersects with the Internets (hey, maybe Dubya was on to something...) and Outernets of other people.

Finally, as a very amateur gardener, I can't help but think of both 'nets as gardens of living things in need of cultivation. The concept of cultivation is commonly used as a spiritual metaphor, and for good reason (it is no coincidence that "cultivation", "culture", and "cult" all come from the same Latin root). Living things need nourishment, space, and pruning in order to be fruitful. I think that sometimes we put a great deal of energy into cultivation our own personal Internets, partly because we have a great deal of control over our experiences as well as an easy way to protect ourselves from them by closing our connection, rebooting, or shutting down entirely.

However, we all too often forget to put energy into cultivating our Outernets. Perhaps this is because we have much less control over our experiences there, and no easy way to protect ourselves from those direct experiences. But therein lies the great tension of the Outernet: while it is sometimes dangerous and out of control, it is also exciting and unpredictable. It also forces us to inhabit our bodies which can be both an exhilarating and frightening experience. The Internet, on the other hand, tends to bring us out of ourselves and therefore less present.

The Internet pulls us out. The Outernet brings us back in.

Now, don't get me wrong. I'm not knocking the Internet. There are many things that it allows us to do that are sometimes prohibitively difficult in the Outernet. It would be quite hypocritical for me to use the Internet to communicate to others that they should not use the Internet to communicate to others. What I'm saying is that we must guard against using the Internet too frequently to do things that may require more effort in the Outernet, but reward that effort with direct experience that the Internet can not provide.

Now, if you will excuse me, I need to step out into my Outernet to prune back the ivy and trees that have been encroaching on the path to our home. I encourage you to do likewise.

One Day Old and I'm Living on Credit

If you're not quite following the credit crisis that is currently pummeling the economy, here's an excellent animated primer:





If you still want more, PBS put together an excellent episode of Frontline called Inside the Meltdown.

If that's not enough I highly recommend the episodes of This American Life that were put together by the guys from NPR's Planet Money blog titled The Giant Pool of Money and Another Frightening Show About the Economy. Word is, part 3 is in the works.

New Year's Day

Here are my resolutions, for what it's worth:

1. Exercise more. I know, everyone says this every year and they get a gym membership and then some time in February decide that it's too much hard work, but I'm really sincere about this. To help me along in this goal, my Father has challenged me to be prepared to hike the entire Great Range in the Adirondacks by August. That's over 20 miles over 7 high peaks (4,000 ft or more). No mean feat. But we've got lots of hills in our neighborhood and Blixa loves long walks, so I'm going to shoot for it.
2. Write that book I said I was going to write. You know, the one about how being pessimistic can make you happy. Enough talk, time to start writing.
3. Get serious about research. The one thing that's missing on my resume is post-graduate research and post-dissertation publications. I've got a lab with high powered computational machinery. It's time to put it to work.
4. Keep in touch. As most of you are I'm sure quite aware, I'm not so great with the staying in touch with friends thing. Coming back to Madison and spending some quality time with some really awesome people made me realize that I know a lot of really awesome people, I just don't talk to them very often. Does this mean I'll finally get a Facebook profile? (My wife chuckles in the background). Stay tuned...
   

49 down, 2 to go

For those keeping score, I called 48 states and DC correctly. Missouri hasn't been called by most of the networks (NBC gives it to McCain) and North Carolina hasn't been called by any of them. I'm guessing I'll turn out right about NC (Obama) and wrong about Missouri (McCain). Four years ago I had all of the states pegged except Ohio.

Really though, all credit goes to fivethirtyeight.com. I just took a guess and got lucky on Indiana and possibly NC. Those were probably the three closest states in the polls, and the polls turned out to be right on the money.

Except, it seems, in Alaska.

Thirty-Three and a Nerd

Happy Day of the Dead everyone!

Today is also auspicious because it will be last time I post a chart about the election on this blog. In honor of this very special day I have spiffed up my chart to make it a bit more readable, including some minor color changes. Here is a key for the different colors:


And here are the numbers as of today:


I've widened the scope of the chart to cover all states that have less than a 100% chance of going one way or the other, according to fivethirtyeight. Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and New Mexico are all "Safe Dem" on fivethirtyeight and "Strong Dem" on pollster.com, so I'm calling all three for Obama. That gives him a total of 264 electoral votes, which means he needs 5 to tie (which would then go to the Democrat controlled House for a tie breaker, which is as good as a win for Obama) and 6 to win outright. That means he can take his pick of Ohio, Nevada, Virginia, or Colorado, all of which Obama is ahead by over 5 points on average according to pollster.com. McCain, on the other hand must win all four states plus all of the toss-ups in order to win, unless he pulls of a miracle and wins Pennsylvania (His odds of that are about 1 in 50 according to fivethirtyeight).

I'll go further at this point and project wins in Ohio, Nevada, Virginia, Colorado, Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina and Florida for Obama, giving him a 375 EV landslide. South Dakota, Arizona, and Georgia will definitely go for McCain, though Georgia may be close. Montana and North Dakota will be close too, but I think McCain still has the edge. In four years they might just turn blue.

If you're watching on election night, the states to keep an eye on when the polls close on the East Coast are Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and North Carolina. If Florida, Ohio, or North Carolina are called for Obama, the election is over. If Pennsylvania and Virginia both go for Obama, he's probably got it in the bag as well. If McCain wins four of these five states, then we're in for a long night. If McCain wins all five he'll almost certainly win, unless Obama can pull out Colorado, Missouri, Indiana, and New Mexico.

On the other hand, if Georgia is too close to call, they'll be uncorking the Champagne (or would that be Urbana-Champaign?) in Chicago early.

Blue

Here's my latest spreadsheet snapshot for the presidential election. For an explanation of the column labels and colors, check out my earlier blog post here.


The major changes from last week:

• Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan are pegged as safe Dem by fivethirtyeight and strong Dem by pollster so I left them out.
• Virginia is now strong Dem on pollster.
  
• Arkansas and West Virginia are now safe GOP on fivethirtyeight and have been replaced by South Dakota which has moved to lean GOP on pollster.
• Montana has moved from lean GOP to toss-up on pollster.
• Indiana has moved from lean GOP to toss-up on fivethirtyeight.
• North Carolina has moved from toss-up to lean Dem on fivethirtyeight
  
• Ohio has moved from toss-up to lean Dem on pollster, and from lean Dem to likely Dem on fivethirtyeight
• New Hampshire is now the tipping point state giving either candidate the 270 votes to win the election

The only good news in there for McCain is that Arkansas and West Virginia are probably safe, which does him very little good. The bad news for McCain is that if Obama wins every state that pollster considers strong Dem -- totalling 268 electoral votes and favoring Obama by 8 points or more -- McCain will need to win every other state.

I must admit, this is the first time that data entry has made me giddy.